White House Race: Who will replace Barack Obama?

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On Tuesday November 8th 2016, Americans will vote for their next president. Having served the maximum two terms, Barack Obama will step aside in January 2017. Both parties have begun the process of choosing their nominees. 


On the Republican side, Donald Trump, a billionaire real estate mogul best known for his role in the 'Celebrity Apprentice' on NBC, emerged as the unlikely frontrunner despite his bombastic style and numerous controversial public statements. Trump became the last remaining candidate in May 2016. 

Mr. Trump has called for Muslims to be temporarily be banned from entering the U.S, for a wall to be built along the country's southern border and has insulted a whole host of people - including Senator John McCain, a war veteran, Serge Kovaleski, a New York Times journalist with a disability and Mexican illegal immigrants, most of whom he said were racists. 

Trump finished second in the Iowa caucus (7 delegates) on February 1st, but won the New Hampshire primary (10 delegates), the South Carolina primary (44 delegates) and the Nevada caucus (14 delegates). 

Elsewhere on the GOP side, Texas Senator Ted Cruz managed to tap into the anti-establishment sentiment among voters, while Florida Senator Marco Rubio performed best among the so-called establishment candidates. 

On Super Tuesday, Donald Trump won seven states including Georgia (40 delegates), Tennessee (31 delegates) and Alabama (36 delegates). Ted Cruz won his home state of Texas (102 delegates) along with two other states. Marco Rubio had a disappointing night, recording his first victory of the campaign in Minnesota (17 delegates).

Following Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential candidate, led efforts to derail Trump's candidacy by describing him as an 'phoney' and ridiculing the frontrunner's policies, rhetoric and business record. 

Mr. Romney's comments didn't stop Trump winning Kentucky (17 delegates) and Louisiana (18 delegates) on the Saturday following Super Tuesday but Cruz did have a strong showing as he won Kansas (24 delegates) and Maine (12 delegates). Marco Rubio picked up Puerto Rico (24 delegates) but increasingly finds himself in a distance third. 

On March 8th, dubbed 'Super Tuesday #2' by CNN, Donald Trump had a good night as he won Michigan (25 delegates), Mississippi (24 delegates) and Hawaii (10 delegates). Ted Cruz won Idaho (14 delegates) and finished second to Trump in the other states. John Kasich finished a strong third in Michigan (17 delegates), while Marco Rubio had another disappointing evening. 

On March 15th, Rubio exited that race after losing his home state of Florida (99 delegates) to Trump by almost 20%. Ohio, like Florida, used a winner takes all system to allocate delegates. Governor John Kasich kept his campaign alive and frustrated Trump by carrying the state (66 delegates). However on a strong night for him and his campaign, Trump made up for the Ohio disappointment by winning in Illinois (51 delegates) and North Carolina (29 delegates).  

On March 22nd, the same day terrorists killed more than 30 people in bombings in the Belgian capital Brussels, Donald Trump won the Arizona primary (58 delegates). Trump spent the day advocating the torture of Salah Abdeslam, a suspect in the November 2015 terror attacks in Paris who was arrested by Belgian police three days before the attacks in Brussels. Senator Ted Cruz, who in the wake of the events in Brussels called for police patrols in 'Muslim neighbourhoods', won the Utah caucus (40 delegates). 

The following day Jeb Bush endorsed Cruz, saying he was a 'consistent, principled conservative'. 

On April 5th, Cruz won the primary in Wisconsin (36 delegates) but despite two weeks of negative headlines and attempts by some in GOP to mobilise a 'stop Trump' movement, Trump won a resounding victory in New York on April 20th (89 delegates). 

Trump's victory in the Indiana primary on May 3rd brought the Republican race to an end as Cruz and then Kasich suspended their campaigns. Trump is now the presumptive nominee. 


On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton, the former First Lady, New York Senator and Secretary of State, was expected to win the nomination at a canter. However Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has performed strongly and proven a worthy adversary for the powerful Clinton campaign.

Senator Sanders has challenged Mrs. Clinton on her links with Wall Street as part of his overall campaign theme of challenging corruption and calling for campaign finance reform. 

Clinton narrowly won the Iowa caucus (23 delegates), while Sanders comfortably won in New Hampshire (15 delegates). Clinton bounced back in Nevada (19 delegates) and had a landslide victory in South Carolina (39 delegates), thanks partly to her popularity among African American voters. 

On Super Tuesday, Clinton performed strongly, winning seven states including Texas (147 delegates), Georgia (72 delegates) and Virginia (61 delegates). Sanders won his home state of Vermont (16 delegates), Minnesota (46 delegates), Colorado (38 delegates) and Oklahoma (21 delegates).

Sanders won Maine (15 delegates) on March 6th and shocked Clinton, and pollsters, by winning Michigan (65 delegates) on March 8th. Clinton continued her strong performance in the south by winning comfortably in Mississippi (29 delegates). 

Clinton scooped up five states on March 15th to extend her delegate lead on Bernie Sanders and take a big step towards the nomination. Among the states she won on 'Super Tuesday #3' were Florida (133 delegates) and Ohio (79 delegates). 

Clinton won Arizona on March 22nd (41 delegates), while Sanders had a strong night winning caucuses in Idaho (17 delegates) and Utah (24 delegates). Sanders' winning streak continued on March 26th when he won caucuses in Alaska (13 delegates), Hawaii (17 delegates) and Washington (25 delegates) and again in Wisconsin (48 delegates) on April 5th and Wyoming on April 9th (7 delegates). 

On April 19th, Hillary Clinton finally returned to winning ways with an important victory in New York (139 delegates). She followed that up with wins in four states on April 26th and, while Bernie Sanders won Indiana on May 3rd, it remains the case that he needs to win and win big in the remaining contests to have any change of catching up with Clinton. 

Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats also operate a system of super delegates. These delegates are senior figures within the Democratic party who can vote for whichever candidate they wish at the DNC convention. Clinton has a huge lead over Sanders when super delegates are taken into account - however the counter below only shows pledged delegates. 

There are 712 Democratic super delegates - 522 have declared for Clinton and 39 for Sanders. However, they are not bound by their declaration and can change their decision at the convention. 

 

Delegates to win: 1,237

Convention: July 18th


  • Iowa caucus winner: Ted Cruz (28%)
  • New Hampshire primary winner: Donald Trump (35%) 

  • South Carolina primary winner: Donald Trump (32.5%)
  • Nevada caucus winner: Donald Trump (46%)

  • Alabama primary winner: Donald Trump (43%)

  • Alaska caucus winner: Ted Cruz (36%)

  • Arkansas primary winner: Donald Trump (33%)

  • Georgia primary winner: Donald Trump (39%). 

  • Massachusetts primary winner: Donald Trump (49%)

  • Minnesota primary winner: Marco Rubio (37%)

  • Oklahoma primary winner: Ted Cruz (34%)

  • Tennessee primary winner: Donald Trump (39%)

  • Texas primary winner: Ted Cruz (44%)

  • Vermont primary winner: Donald Trump (33%)

  • Virginia primary winner: Donald Trump (35%)

  • Kansas caucus winner: Ted Cruz (48%)

  • Kentucky caucus winner: Donald Trump (36%).

  • Louisiana primary winner: Donald Trump (41%).

  • Maine caucus winner: Ted Cruz (46%). 

  • Puerto Rico caucus winner: Marco Rubio (71%)

  • Hawaii caucus winner: Donald Trump (42%)

  • Idaho primary winner: Ted Cruz (45%)

  • Michigan primary winner: Donald Trump (37%)

  • Mississippi primary winner: Donald Trump (47%)

  • District of Columbia caucus winner: Marco Rubio (37%)

  • Wyoming convention winner: Ted Cruz (66%)

  • Florida primary winner: Donald Trump (46%)

  • Illinois primary winner: Donald Trump (39%)

  • Missouri primary winner: Donald Trump (41%)

  • North Carolina winner: Donald Trump (40%)

  • Ohio primary winner: John Kasich (47%)

  • Arizona primary winner: Donald Trump (47%)

  • Utah caucus winner: Ted Cruz (70%)

  • Wisconsin primary winner: Ted Cruz (48%)

  • New York primary winner: Donald Trump (60%)

  • Connecticut primary winner: Donald Trump (58%)

  • Delaware primary winner: Donald Trump (61%)

  • Maryland primary winner: Donald Trump (54%)

  • Pennsylvania primary winner: Donald Trump (57%)

  • Rhode Island primary winner: Donald Trump (64%)

  • Indiana primary winner: Donald Trump (53%)

  • Nebraska primary winner: May 10th

  • West Virginia primary winner: May 10th

  • Oregon primary winner: May 17th

  • Washington primary winner: May 24th. 

  • California primary winner: June 7th

  • Montana primary winner: June 7th

  • New Jersey primary winner: June 7th

  • New Mexico primary winner: June 7th

  • South Dakota primary winner: June 7th


  • Dropped out after Indiana primary: Ted Cruz, John Kasich. 

  • Dropped out after March 15th primaries: Marco Rubio

  • Dropped out after Super Tuesday: Ben Carson. 

  • Dropped out after South Carolina: Jeb Bush. 
  • Dropped out after New Hampshire: Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Jim Gilmore. 

  • Dropped out after Iowa:  Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul. 


Delegates to win: 2,382

Convention: July 25th


  • Iowa caucus winner: Hillary Clinton (49.9%)

  • New Hampshire primary winner: Bernie Sanders (60%)
  • Nevada caucus winner: Hillary Clinton (53%)

  • South Carolina primary winner: Hillary Clinton (73.5%)

  • American Samoa caucus: Hillary Clinton (TBC%)

  • Alabama primary winner: Hillary Clinton (78%)

  • Arkansas primary winner: Hillary Clinton (66%)

  • Colorado primary winner: Bernie Sanders (59%)

  • Georgia primary winner: Hillary Clinton (71%)

  • Massachusetts primary winner: Hillary Clinton (50%)

  • Minnesota primary winner: Bernie Sanders (62%)

  • Oklahoma primary winner: Bernie Sanders (52%)

  • Tennessee primary winner: Hillary Clinton (66%)

  • Texas primary winner: Hillary Clinton (65%)

  • Vermont primary winner: Bernie Sanders (86%)

  • Virginia primary winner: Hillary Clinton (64%). 

  • Kansas caucus winner: Bernie Sanders (68%).

  • Louisiana primary winner: Hillary Clinton (71%).

  • Nebraska caucus winner: Bernie Sanders (56%). 

  • Maine caucus winner: Bernie Sanders (64%)

  • Michigan primary winner: Bernie Sanders (50%)

  • Mississippi primary winner: Hillary Clinton (83%)

  • Florida primary winner: Hillary Clinton (64%)

  • Illinois primary winner: Hillary Clinton (50%)

  • Missouri primary winner: Hillary Clinton (50%)

  • North Carolina primary winner: Hillary Clinton (55%)

  • Ohio primary winner: Hillary Clinton (56.5%)

  • Arizona primary winner: Hillary Clinton (58%)

  • Idaho caucus winner: Bernie Sanders (78%)

  • Utah caucus winner: Bernie Sanders (80%)

  • Alaska caucus winner: Bernie Sanders (82%)

  • Hawaii caucus winner: Bernie Sanders (70%)

  • Washington caucus winner: Bernie Sanders (73%)

  • Wisconsin primary winner: Bernie Sanders (57%)

  • Wyoming caucus winner: Bernie Sanders (56%)

  • New York primary winner: Hillary Clinton (58%) 

  • Conncticut primary winner: Hillary Clinton (52%)

  • Delaware primary winner: Hillary Clinton (60%)

  • Maryland primary winner: Hillary Clinton: (63%)

  • Pennsylvania primary winner: Hillary Clinton (57%)

  • Rhode Island primary winner: Bernie Sanders (55%) 

  • Indiana primary winner: Bernie Sanders (53%)

  • West Virginia primary winner: May 10th

  • Kentucky primary winner: May 17th

  • Oregon primary winner: May 17th

  • Virgin Islands caucus: June 4th

  • Puerto Rico caucus: June 5th

  • California primary winner: June 7th

  • Montana primary winner: June 7th

  • New Jersey primary winner: June 7th

  • New Mexico primary winner: June 7th

  • North Dakota caucus winner: June 7th

  • South Dakota primary winner: June 7th

  • DC primary winner: June 14th


  • Dropped out after Iowa: Martin O'Malley



The New Hampshire Primaries: Resounding wins for Trump and Sanders

Outsiders deliver on poll numbers to stun party establishment 

 

How the candidates reacted

We are going to start winning again. And we’re going to win so much, you are going to be so happy. We are going to make America so great again. Maybe greater than ever before.
— Donald Trump
Tonight we serve notice to the political and economic establishment of this country that the American people will not continue to accept a corrupt campaign finance system that is undermining American democracy and we will not accept a rigged economy in which ordinary Americans work longer hours for lower wages while almost all new income and wealth goes to the top one percent.
— Bernie Sanders

Other headlines from New Hampshire

  • Carly Fiorina dropped out after finishing third last in New Hampshire with 4.1% (11,706 votes). Ms. Fiorina had 1.9% 
  • Governor Chris Christie also dropped out having finished 6th in New Hampshire with 7.4% (21,069 votes). 


Primary day in New Hampshire

What is at stake? 

24 Democratic delegates

23 Republican delegates 

 

When do polls open and close?

Voting is underway in most districts now and will conclude in most areas by 7pm local (midnight GMT). 

 

The state of the race

 

Republicans: Donald Trump has been leading polls in New Hampshire for months and is widely expected to win the state. Doing so would be a boost to Mr. Trump after his disappointing second place showing in Iowa.

Election watchers will also have a close eye on Senator Marco Rubio's placing following his strong showing in Iowa and his lacklustre performance in Saturday's debate. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush is in dire need of a solid result to breathe some life into his floundering campaign.

Dropped out after Iowa: Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul. 

 

Democrats: Bernie Sanders is the strong favourite according to opinion polls and the senator will be hoping to capitalise on the momentum he garnered from the virtual tie between himself and Hillary Clinton in Iowa.

Since Iowa, the vitriol between the two campaigns has intensified with Clinton and Sanders sparring over whom is the more progressive. In last week's debate, Mrs. Clinton accused Senator Sanders of engaging in a 'very artful smear' against her reputation. 

Dropped out after Iowa: Martin O'Malley. 

 

What comes next?

February 20th

Nevada Democratic caucus, South Carolina Republican primary. 

February 23rd

Nevada Republican caucus. 

February 27th

South Carolina Democratic primary.

March 1st - Super Tuesday


Candidates turn on Rubio in Republican debate

Marco, the thing is this. When you’re president of the United States, when you’re a governor of a state, the memorised 30-second speech where you talk about how great America is at the end of it doesn’t solve one problem for one person.
— Governor Chris Christie
  • Marco Rubio, the Republican senator from Florida, found himself the target of attacks from the other 'establishment' candidates in Saturday night's debate on ABC. 

  • It was the last debate before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary - polls suggest Donald Trump will win the state but Mr. Rubio has the momentum after a strong third place showing in Iowa. 

  • Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey reiterated his mantle that Rubio has never been involved in a 'consequential decision' where he had to be held accountable. 

  • Jeb Bush compared Senator Rubio to President Obama, saying voters chose someone with 'soaring eloquence' but no leadership. 

  • Rubio's response was to criticise President Obama for trying to change America. 

  • Useful Resource: Full debate transcript (Washington Post)

'Progressive' argument comes to the fore at Democratic debate

If you’ve got something to say, say it directly, but you will not find that I ever changed a view or a vote because of any donation that I ever received.
— Hillary Clinton
  • Amid rising tensions between the two campaigns, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders brought their dispute over which candidate was more progressive into Thursday night's MSNBC debate.
  • There were heated exchange between the two, with Mrs. Clinton accusing Senator Sanders of a 'very artful smear' by constantly mentioning the fact that she has received donations and speaking fees from Wall Street firms.

  • Clinton said that the Sanders campaign was effectively implying that she was corrupt and challenged him to say so directly. 

  • Sanders steered clear of responding to what, at times, were aggressive attacks by Clinton but did repeat his frequent line that she was part of the 'establishment' and beholden to special interest groups. 

  • A debate filled with acrimony ended in harmony as Clinton said the first person she would call if she won the nomination would be the senator and Sanders said he respected the former secretary of state and admitted that on the campaign trail 'things get a little bit out of hand'. 

  • Useful Resource: Full debate transcript (NYT)

Up next: New Hampshire (32 delegates)